Local by-election in Caerphilly on Thursday.

 The South Wales by-election in Caerphilly is important for a number of reasons. Will Reform come out and win the constituency and where will Labour and the Tories be? And what about the Welsh nationalists part Plaid Cymru - will they survive as they have become unpopular of late. I know the town as my mother was born only a few miles away in Llandbradach a mining village, where the pits were the main industry. My grandfather - John Lewis, was an engineer who worked there for many years. My mother Evelyn, managed to escape with her older sister Edie to live with their middle class aunt - Alice and uncle Frederick - in Swindon, some 120 miles away, but it could have been on another planet. 

This morning we know the answer and Plaid  Cymru, with 47 per cent of the vote and Reform on 36 per cent. The biggest loser is the Labour Party, it’s a real drumming and it’s difficult to see a recovery by the elections in May. It’s their first defeat in this part of the country for 100 years. Keir Starmer, has a serious headache after this catastrophe in Wales. The Labour Party pushed into a humiliating 3rd place. Reform came in second and the Conservatives - miles behind on only 2 per cent of the vote. There will be an attempt to explain the - aberration as only a local manifestation of local grievances, but that won’t wash. Labour are on the way out in Wales on this historic election result.