Is it wise to change horses midstream?

 According to Fraser Nelson in The Times today - be careful what you wish for. The current crisis in government is like a - Ground Hog Day experience - of the dying days of the Johnson government. In the recent past our political system has been contaminated by this sickness. Despite his manifold impediments and personality problems, would it be - wise to change horses midstream? I think my diagnosis of Keir Starmer’s mental illness is that of an autistic. He has little or no empathy for others and is somewhat disengage from his colleagues, including senior civil servants and cabinet ministers. 

Running out of road.

 As we approach the local elections in 2 weeks time, there is increasing anxiety in the Labour Party, that it could be a - blood bath. Many members of parliament have very small majorities and it wouldn’t take much to unseat many from the House of Commons. For example the health secretary Wes Streeting, has a tiny majority in his constituency of Ilford North of only 528. In The Times today Patrick Maguire, has a good article about how the mood in the party is sulphurous and potentially explosive. If as expected the polls are terrible, then it’s the end of Starmer and preparations will start to have Andy Burnham, a seat in the House of Commons. He will then be the next leader of the Labour Party and prime minister. 

The London School of Economics - Alumni room.

 I’m at the LSE Alumni room enjoying a coffee, before lunch at Romano’s restaurant at 12.15. There are only six students here and one older chap and probably an endemic. They are all from their appearance from the Indian subcontinent. They are mainly women, working intensively at their Apple laptops. The LSE has in recent years become the leading university in the country, taking over from Oxford, Cambridge and St Andrew’s universities. We are fortunate in this country having so many outstanding places to study. I was here as a student, way back in the autumn of 1971 - some 55 years ago. The immediate environment is comprised of brand new buildings with outstanding facilities. The Old Building, is no more and in its place is a steel and glass building, where Im having coffee. The Shaw Library, is still there and probably the best place to go and relax on large comfortable sofas, surrounded by books with a grand piano in the far corner. I remember coming here and - chillaxing many years ago. 

At war with the civil service.

 The prime minister has dug a deep hole for himself, by peremptory sacking Sir Ollie Robbins, the previous head of the Foreign Office last week. There is disquiet in the cabinet about his decision and consequently the - bond of trust between ministers and the civil service has essentially broken down. Unless this is repaired quickly and with dispatch the government will - not function properly. Moreover we are approaching the local elections in two weeks time and it’s generally expected the Labour Party will do particularly badly. The most recent opinion polls by YouGov suggest: Reform on 24%; Conservative Party on 19%: Labour on 16%; Greens on 16% and the Lib/Dems on 13%. If this turns out to be the case then many members of parliament - would lose their seats in a general election. Unless there can be a greater sense of purpose and direction then the government will be a one term administration. There are only three years left to - avoid the iceberg before a terrible disaster happens and Reform gets into government. 

Waving or drowning?

 Another day another crisis for the prime minister as we approach PMQ’s today in the House of Commons. No doubt Kemi Badenock will ask him about the issue - of a job offer for Lord Doyle as an ambassador? On Newsnight on Tuesday the head of the First Division Association Dave Penman said that the prime minister was “losing the ability to work with the civil service”. If this is the case then he is in serious trouble - as they are the Rolls Royce of how government functions. The last Conservative government, went through five prime ministers in as many years and look how we ended up? This government and in particular Keir Starmer, is in real trouble as we approach the national local elections in May. It could be catastrophic for the Labour Party and we shall see whether he is -  waving or drowning? 

The late queen would be 100 today.

 Had she lived the late Queen Elizabeth II would be 100 today. I wonder if she would have sent herself a - message of best wishes. Amazing to think in September - it will be four years since she died and King Charles became monarch. 

Did he do enough?

 Did the prime minister do enough in parliament on Monday to save his job? The House of Commons was packed - liked sardines in a can - it was standing room only for those who arrived late. The barrister Starmer, was bullish and ponderous, but clearly very nervous. Kemi Badenoch, was dangerous and up for a fight. Apparently she had a visit from Lord Cameron, just before she entered the chamber. Perhaps he gave her a few tips? It still - beggars belief that Starmer didn’t know that Mandelson had failed secretly vetting and wasn’t informed. The essential problem is that Mandelson, was appointed as ambassador, before the vetting had taken place. Thereby getting the - cart before the horse. The Foreign Office, were therefore in a - bind. Do they reject or not a chosen person for the role of ambassador? It was at that point they should have informed the prime minister that he had in fact - failed the security vetting process. He was not given a green light, but an amber one - therefore raising questions about his suitability. Starmer is still not out of trouble yet. He didn’t do enough to save his job and his back benchers, didn’t look convinced - about his story either. He is a - dead man walking. 

I watched the Commons Select Committee on the Foreign Office, this morning and Sir Ollie Robbins, the recently sacked permanent secretary was before them. He was there to explain why he was dismissed and the security process Lord Peter Mandelson had gone through? He indicated the severe pressure he and his department - was under from the prime minister’s office for a rapid decision by January 20 2025. This was the date when Trump, became president. What became increasingly clear was that - they wanted him to be given security clearance for his job as ambassador to Washington. The pressure was unrelenting and persistent from Downing Street and the prime minister’s office. In other words Morgan McSweeney, the chief of staff to Keir Starmer. The plot thickens. 

However a bigger danger to Starmer, is the fact that Lord Doyle, who was the director of communications for the prime minister - was touted as a possible ambassadorial role. He has no previous experience of foreign affairs and would therefore have been a unique candidate. This was revealed by Sir Ollie Robbins this morning to the select committee. There is - blood in the water and the political sharks, can smell the corpse of a decomposing prime minister. This could be the fatal mistake of bad political leadership and judgement?