Modern warfare.

 In a revealing interview in The Times today Al Carns, the 45 year old Scot and one time member as the head of the Special Boat Service - was pessimistic about our readiness for the next war. He expects that within the next few years there will be a war with Russia and we must therefore be prepared. It won’t be tanks and heavy artillery, but Drones. They are the future of warfare, but the - top brass at the Ministry of Defence are not awake to this new reality. He is now an  MP - and was only elected in July 2024, but is the minister of state for the armed forces. This new AI generated Drone warfare is like comparing the - scythe to a combined harvester. Can we get ready in time or is the MOD - still wedded to tanks and artillery? 

Mexico in turmoil as the drug barons fight it out.

 Goodness me the violence in Mexico is absolutely horrendous and terrifying. The various drug cartels are fighting each for a bigger slice of the pie. The king pin - better known as El Mencho was killed on Sunday in police custody and since then there has been an escalation in death and violence. The fear is everywhere according to journalists at the BBC. It’s impossible to imagine how terrible it must be for an ordinary member of the public, living from day to day in this madness. How can you bring up a normal family in these diabolical circumstances? 

The important by-election on Thursday.

 On Thursday in the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton an important by-election happens. Given the multiple of problems the Labour Party has at the moment, it’s considered unlikely to win. The Reform Party is hoping to take this talismanic working class constituency by storm. However there is a Green Party, also in the race. Should Labour lose this seat, then the knives will be cut for Starmer. If I was a - betting person - I would put £5 on Reform winning comfortably. Friday morning will be interesting - especially for the prime minister. Will this be the beginning of the end of his disastrous reign? 

Four years on from the invasion by Putin.

The unholy war by the rapacious and murderous Putin started 4 years ago, although it feels much longer. According to BBC Two tonight there is a programme about the consequences of war on ordinary Russian soldiers, families and girlfriends. It’s entitled The Zero Line: Inside Russia’s War. It’s now estimated by respected sources that something like 1,200,000 members of the military have died - either from direct or indirect action. However there is a state policy for those who don’t want to fight or die and that is a policy, known as Zero. In other words if you are in the Russian army and think of not wanting to continue in battle and want to escape the - madness of the meat grinder. The commanding officer will kill you in this Zero sum game system. So there is no way out. A classic - Catch 22. You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. 

During the Vietnam War (1955-1975) there was known as ‘fracking’ where soldiers would throw an hand grenade at a senior officer or shot themselves in the foot, to be discharged from service. War makes you do crazy things. So unlike in WW2 we had - conscientious objection, where someone - who held deeply moral, religious or philosophical beliefs that killing was wrong - could legally be excused from fighting. They might be allocated to for example to the Ambulance Services, or medical team. This a correct moral reaction, by a civilised society, unlike Putin’s Russia today. What will be the long term effect of this inhumane policy over time on the Russian people? Many hundreds of families are suffering and caught up in this national nightmare. 

Peter Mandelson and the end of the prime minister.

 Could this scandal about Peter Mandelson, bring down the prime minister Keir Starmer and eventually the government? The Reform Party are waiting in the - wings to take full advantage of the crisis. The judgement by Starmer, to appoint Mandelson as the ambassador in Washington last year - is now seen as a crass error. Needless to say the Conservatives are also making the most of this political faux pas. We are in uncharted waters, but it reminds me of the Christine Keeler fiasco in the summer of 1963. This caused the end of the then prime minister Harold Macmillan and John Profumo, the minister of war. MacMillan, use to say regarding the ups and downs of politics “events dear boy, events”. And so the adage is true as it was back in 1963. I cannot see Starmer, recovering from this unnecessary collapse of confidence in him. It’s all eventually down to character and has the ingredients of a Shakespearean tragedy. 

WW3.

 President Zelensky has said today that Russia has already started WW3 by the invasion of Ukraine by Putin. Tomorrow is the fourth anniversary of this historic attack by a belligerent regime in Moscow. The death toll in Russia has been terrible, but Putin isn’t concerned with such niceties as the death toll of his fellow citizens. Ukraine on the other hand is losing many of its young people to this incessant war and Zelensky is very mindful of this. As I mentioned on Sunday - we in the UK are defenceless and not ready for war under any circumstances. Time to - wake up and smell the coffee, before it’s too late. 

Sarah Ferguson.

 Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, has managed to also drag his one time wife into the - gutter with him. Apparently she is hiding in UAE and penniless and dependent on the generosity of others. When she married Andrew in 1986 she was granted a Latin motto “out of adversity grows happiness”. Sounds somewhat apposite under the current circumstances. Her poor daughters Beatrice and Eugenie - must feel mortified, embarrassed and depressed. They have two parents that have - gone completely off the rails. To have one parent to be useless is bad enough, but two is very unfortunate. There are four grandchildren and one step-grandchild. Goodness knows what they make of this nadir in family fortunes? Leo Tolstoy was correct in his famous diagnosis in Anna Karenina, where he states “all happy families resemble one another, each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way”. What more can be said?