Who will win in Holborn & St Pancras?

 Today is the by-election at the above constituency, vacated by Keir Starmer - remember him? It’s going to be a much closer result than many anticipated. On balance, I think the Labour Party will win - nevertheless they will do so - by a relatively small margin. What will be interesting, is how the Green Party does, especially in light of the recent controversy - regarding the sensitive issue of their attitude to Israel? I hope they get a good kicking. 

Well the result is in for the by-election and the Labour Party has held onto the seat. The Green Party came second and the leadership of Zac Polanski, is under pressure as the party didn’t win the election and came a miserable second. Then the Tories, Reform and Lib Dem’s. The controversy about his absence at a crucial vote on Zionism - has completely overshadowed their party conference in Brighton. There is now open discussion about whether he can continue to lead the party. He will eventually be toppled as leader as he - clearly isn’t up to the task. 

Has Kemi Badenoch, done enough?

 The respective opinion polls suggest the following: Labour 27 per cent, Reform 22 per cent, Conservatives, 20 per cent, Lib/Dems 11 per cent and Greens 11 per cent. There has been a small Burnham - bounce for Labour following their party conference, but not sufficient to give them a majority in a general election - if it was called today. Labour would have the largest number of seats in the House of Commons, but not enough to form a government. So there would be a lot of negotiations and - horse trading. They need 326 seats to form a government. The most likely scenario would be a Labour and Lib/Dem coalition government, but it wouldn’t be very stable and the likelihood is another election within a year or so. We need a long period of stability as the - world is a very uncertain and unpredictable at present. God knows what will happen in the French presidential elections next spring and will Marine Le Pen, become president? The first extreme right wing candidate. 

The annual check up.

 About this time of the year I take my car to see - Jeff a car mechanic who is a person I trust. This of course is the sine qua non of the relationship. So back in 2003 - I asked neighbours to recommend a car person - who was both good at their job and trustworthy? Jeff was the winner by a good margin. So 23 years on - Jeff has the pleasure of the annual car - check up. I made the right decision back then. 

Finding their feet.

 The new Labour government, under Andy Burnham - is still finding its feet. He will make an important speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, later today - setting out his vision for the country. It will be a - difficult sell to his party, that has little financial room to manoeuvre. Nevertheless he will attempt to set out the - path forward that gives - hope for the future and the steps to achieve this goal. The Tories will be watching the speech - to try and define their tactics for attack. In particular on the controversial issue of - tax and spend. The Labour Party - manifesto in 2024 - gave him little room for raising taxes in this parliament. So a difficult - balancing act. 

Can the Royal family survive?

 There is increasing concern about the longevity of the Royal family and whether it will survive into the future? The current controversy about Earl Spencer’s book about his sister Diana, and her untimely death in Paris in August 1997 - has reopened old wounds. In particular the reaction of the then prince Charles, now King Charles - to her death. Andrew Lownie - the author was interviewed by Lewis Goodall, on the Newsagent podcast and was very informative. The institution has a deep - proclivity of kicking the ball into the long grass. However that strategy may have worked when the late Queen Elizabeth was alive, but not any longer. They must come - clean about what they knew and when they knew it regarding - Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein. Unless they do urgently then the - rot will continue. 

70 Up.

 An ITV programme started way back in 1964 - when a group of young people were selected to be part of a - social mobility study. They were followed up each 7 years to see how they were developing, both socially and psychologically. It’s just concluded and last night on ITV - we had some of the participants - speaking to camera about the experience, good and bad. Some found the whole thing a - trial and something to be endured and the - public exposure problematic and disturbing. Others were more sanguine and it wasn’t so difficult. There was some criticism of the director - who was less than objective and had his own particular agenda - regarding class. Having said this - I watched the programme with great interest - to see how the participants had developed. The end of an interesting experiment. 

Crime in London.

 We often hear from the mayor of London that crime in general and violent crime in particular is on the decline. However, there is a new form of crime and that is the - league table of violence. In order to get a high place and more points you must commit - serious crimes like - stabbings, shootings, and even murder to get a high place on the board. All this is happening in south London in and around Brixton. This league table is fuelling increases in violence and has led to a number of murders. They take pride in - being top of the league table. How extraordinary - there could be pride in violence and even murder.