Saturday, 1 March 2014
Will there be civil war in Crimea?.
Its one hundred years since he outbreak of WW1- are we heading for another international conflict? As we prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of the year, boots on the ground will be available for another battle. It seems to me this scenario is not importable. Russia is watching the unfolding crisis with particular interest, for fear of a 'domino effect'. Democracy is the fear of these despotic, kleptomaniac states. It would undermine the iron grip on Vladimir Putin. The same fear is also there in China. That's why after the collapse of western economies in 2008, China opened its wallet and poured many billions into its dilapidated infrastructure, fearing a popular uprising and chaos as demand for Chinese goods in the west disappeared. Potentially many millions of Chinese workers would have been made idle, with potentially disastrous consequences. There is no 'safety valve' in these political systems to ease the pressure. At least in a democracy - you can 'kick the buggers out' every few years, as happened to Labour in May 2010, thus making way for the present political comprise of a Conservative and Lib/Dem coalition government . What will happen in May 2015?
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