John Simpson at the BBC.

 Last night on BBC Two there was an excellent programme about the veteran journalist time of over 60 years at the BBC. He has been during that time at many of the most important and notable events in world history. Including the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the war in Afghanistan and fight against the Taliban and various other wars and uprisings. He comes across as a thoughtful and intelligent journalist - with a deep empathy for those who have suffered - in these remorseless ares of conflict. 

Sir Ken McCullun the head of MI5.

 At a news conference on Tuesday, the head of MI5 Sir Ken McCullum, made a statement about the serious - threats from AI. There are not sufficient guard rails internationally to prevent - lone wolfs or malign states like: Russia, North Korea or China making deadly biological attacks on humans across the globe. As a - lay person it’s impossible to know - how to react to these - pessimistic scenarios as they are so overwhelming and dangerous. It makes the - Cold War look relatively benign. 

The Brexit - Hokey Cokey.

 Why is Andy Burnham, suggesting a closer relationship with the EU? Is he serious or is he trying to protect his left flank - from the Green Party and the left of the Labour Party? At this point it’s difficult to know, but this political - hokey cokey is an attempt to appeal to all sides in the debate. It’s now 10 years since the - trauma of the 2016 referendum on Brexit and the scars have hardly healed. For my own part I don’t want to go through this again. It was emotionally exhausting and draining - it set family members and friends against each other. Moreover - do the governments of the EU want us back in a club - where we were often at odds with? In addition we wouldn’t be able as before - not be part of the Euro, free movement of people and goods, and ever closer integration. I cannot see it happening in the near future. 

Who will win in Holborn & St Pancras?

 Today is the by-election at the above constituency, vacated by Keir Starmer - remember him? It’s going to be a much closer result than many anticipated. On balance, I think the Labour Party will win - nevertheless they will do so - by a relatively small margin. What will be interesting, is how the Green Party does, especially in light of the recent controversy - regarding the sensitive issue of their attitude to Israel? I hope they get a good kicking. 

Well the result is in for the by-election and the Labour Party has held onto the seat. The Green Party came second and the leadership of Zac Polanski, is under pressure as the party didn’t win the election and came a miserable second. Then the Tories, Reform and Lib Dem’s. The controversy about his absence at a crucial vote on Zionism - has completely overshadowed their party conference in Brighton. There is now open discussion about whether he can continue to lead the party. He will eventually be toppled as leader as he - clearly isn’t up to the task. 

Has Kemi Badenoch, done enough?

 The respective opinion polls suggest the following: Labour 27 per cent, Reform 22 per cent, Conservatives, 20 per cent, Lib/Dems 11 per cent and Greens 11 per cent. There has been a small Burnham - bounce for Labour following their party conference, but not sufficient to give them a majority in a general election - if it was called today. Labour would have the largest number of seats in the House of Commons, but not enough to form a government. So there would be a lot of negotiations and - horse trading. They need 326 seats to form a government. The most likely scenario would be a Labour and Lib/Dem coalition government, but it wouldn’t be very stable and the likelihood is another election within a year or so. We need a long period of stability as the - world is a very uncertain and unpredictable at present. God knows what will happen in the French presidential elections next spring and will Marine Le Pen, become president? The first extreme right wing candidate. 

The annual check up.

 About this time of the year I take my car to see - Jeff a car mechanic who is a person I trust. This of course is the sine qua non of the relationship. So back in 2003 - I asked neighbours to recommend a car person - who was both good at their job and trustworthy? Jeff was the winner by a good margin. So 23 years on - Jeff has the pleasure of the annual car - check up. I made the right decision back then. 

Finding their feet.

 The new Labour government, under Andy Burnham - is still finding its feet. He will make an important speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, later today - setting out his vision for the country. It will be a - difficult sell to his party, that has little financial room to manoeuvre. Nevertheless he will attempt to set out the - path forward that gives - hope for the future and the steps to achieve this goal. The Tories will be watching the speech - to try and define their tactics for attack. In particular on the controversial issue of - tax and spend. The Labour Party - manifesto in 2024 - gave him little room for raising taxes in this parliament. So a difficult - balancing act. 

Can the Royal family survive?

 There is increasing concern about the longevity of the Royal family and whether it will survive into the future? The current controversy about Earl Spencer’s book about his sister Diana, and her untimely death in Paris in August 1997 - has reopened old wounds. In particular the reaction of the then prince Charles, now King Charles - to her death. Andrew Lownie - the author was interviewed by Lewis Goodall, on the Newsagent podcast and was very informative. The institution has a deep - proclivity of kicking the ball into the long grass. However that strategy may have worked when the late Queen Elizabeth was alive, but not any longer. They must come - clean about what they knew and when they knew it regarding - Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein. Unless they do urgently then the - rot will continue. 

70 Up.

 An ITV programme started way back in 1964 - when a group of young people were selected to be part of a - social mobility study. They were followed up each 7 years to see how they were developing, both socially and psychologically. It’s just concluded and last night on ITV - we had some of the participants - speaking to camera about the experience, good and bad. Some found the whole thing a - trial and something to be endured and the - public exposure problematic and disturbing. Others were more sanguine and it wasn’t so difficult. There was some criticism of the director - who was less than objective and had his own particular agenda - regarding class. Having said this - I watched the programme with great interest - to see how the participants had developed. The end of an interesting experiment. 

Crime in London.

 We often hear from the mayor of London that crime in general and violent crime in particular is on the decline. However, there is a new form of crime and that is the - league table of violence. In order to get a high place and more points you must commit - serious crimes like - stabbings, shootings, and even murder to get a high place on the board. All this is happening in south London in and around Brixton. This league table is fuelling increases in violence and has led to a number of murders. They take pride in - being top of the league table. How extraordinary - there could be pride in violence and even murder. 

Papua New Guinea and a very rare animal.

 In an extremely remote part of north west Papua New Guinea, there is a tree animal that has rarely been seen and not yet - filmed or properly recognised or identified by Zoologist. However in a brilliant series starting on BBC2 on Sunday evening - we had a good look at this extraordinary animal - the Tankile. Simon Reeves in Wilderness goes to this inhospitable area - off the beaten track to try and both see and film the tree kangaroo - the Tankile. It’s lived in the tree canopy for many millions of years - without being disturbed. Only local people have been fortunate enough to have seen it. We were in luck as the local guide - who knows the terrain and places - where they are more likely to be see the Tankile was invaluable. It’s the most lovely looking animal, like a small bear with brown fur, small head and piercing eyes and long tail for balance in the trees as they climb. They were able to - film, take blood samples, take various measurements and basically - document this very rare animal. The very first time this has been done. However, unfortunately there are parts of the pristine jungle - that are being illegally logged for big money - so in the long term the Tankile is under threat. Just at the very point - when we see this rare animal for the first time. 

Testing our resolve.

 There are reports in the press about the possibility of - Russia testing the resolve of Europe. Would Putin, be so stupid or is it all part of his political and military manoeuvring's. The NATO rules say under article 5 - an attack on one is an attack on all. So in theory there should be a collective response to any attack. But no doubt there is plenty of - wriggle room by some countries - not willing to put their troops in harms way. We in this country are hardly able to summon up many troops at a moments notice. Other countries on the boarders with Russia, might well feel differently. There are at least 8 countries with a land border with Russia, including: Norway, Finland, Estonian and Latvia. We know from the war in Ukraine that Russia is a - belligerent neighbour. So all bets are off as Putin, could be reckless and do something stupid. 

The shakeup in German politics.

 Germany is going through a major change of direction. The former successful Christian Democratic Party (CDU) has lost another election and this only adds additional pressure on the chancellor Mertz. He isn’t considered a big asset to his party and his - lacklustre performance at various rallies - hasn’t helped him. The central problem is - the gene is out of the bottle and there is no going back to the - status quo ante. The travails of the CDU are manifold and started under the chancellor (2005-2021) Angela Merkel, with her disastrous policy in 2015 of - letting into the country over a million Syrian refugees. The rot started then. It’s now not possible to predict the future of German politics, but many think the AfD - is on route to power in the next few years. The big general elections across Germany are in 2029 and that could be the year the AfD - make a clean sweep. Be careful what you wish for - as we are rapidly approaching the victory of Hitler as chancellor in January 1933. We know what happened after that. 

A dagger into the heart of the monarchy.

 Well the Queensbeery rules are not being adhered to between the King and Earl Spencer, the younger brother to Diana. It’s turned rather nasty. Following the death of his sister in a tragic car accident in - Paris in August 1997 - there was universal mourning and some say - general hysteria in London and in particular Kensington Palace - was flooded with tourists and flowers. His book - Swan Song: Diana, My Sister is about to be published. And needless to say has caused a great deal of controversy on all sides. We are all familiar with this story of betrayal, illicit love making between Charles and Camilla and the general implosion of the House of Windsor. No one comes out - smelling of roses. Moreover this latest salvo from Earl Charles Spencer, is very incendiary and could completely undermine the King - in his attempts to do the right thing. We all know he - didn’t love Diana and was in love with Camilla - so the wedding in July 1981 was a complete farce. There appears to be no end to the - national soap opera of the House of Windsor. With Harry and Meghan - returning to England a few weeks ago - this adds another layer to the ongoing saga - of the rotten house of Windsor. What do you think William is going through? His father the King known as an adulterous father/husband and a errant brother - who has just reentered the stage and his vacuous wife Meghan. Could this be a mortal blow to the authority and majesty of the King? 

Why do some do better than others?

 The international Pisa educational study is worth considering - when looking at different ethnic groups in Britain - regarding education attainment. The most successful are: Chinese, Indian, Bangladesh, Black African, Caribbean. The Black Caribbean, does the least best in the Pisa study. Two other groups that will eventually feed into the research are the - Hong Kong Chinese and the refugees from Ukraine. Some 500,000 from each respective group - will soon make their presence known. However, the sub-group at the bottom of attainment is the - white working class. Why? Many arguments have been advanced for this underachievement. For example: a greater damage to working class infrastructure, jobs and pathways into industries not being available, the closing of social clubs for them, low expectations by both parents and teachers, family breakdown and divorce, increasing use of drugs and alcohol, living in an area where industries have left behind derelict sites and communities, living in coastal towns where there is only - seasonal work. Whatever the causes - their future is vey bleak - unless the government can change the trajectory - of these young white working class boys and young men. 

Channel 4 about the asylum protests.

 On Channel 4 there was a programme about the asylum protests across the country entitled England Till I Die and in particular Crowborough, Kent. The leader of the opposition was a chap called Liam. But these protests are not limited to Kent - there is widespread anger with successive governments about the number of asylum seekers. They are disproportionately unskilled men aged between - 16 and 25 of the Muslim faith - crossing the English Channel in boats. This disquiet - stems from an assumption about displacement - white indigenous people out populated by Muslims. The government is on the back foot and playing - catch up. Unless there is a dramatic change in the number of asylum seekers to the country - the Labour government could be kicked out and Reform and Nigel Farage, will have the - keys to Downing Street. Time to wake up and smell the coffee. 

A lack of knowledge about the King James Version (KJV).

 I was like many children of my age - I went to Sunday school, back in the late forties and early fifties. I enjoyed the weekly ritual and routine - slowly imbibing the stories of Christ and his disciples and of course the Old Testament. So I read with some sadness in The Spectator this week an article by an Oxford academic Gwion Wyn Jones, the fact that a - knowledge of the bible and its stories and parables are not known by many of our fellow citizens. According to 2014 Bible Society research of British children: 61 per cent were not familiar with the parable of the Good Samaritan and 87 per cent didn’t know about the conversion of Paul on the Road to Damascus. These stories are part of the very - backbone of our collective knowledge of the bible. How is it possible that this - basic understanding and assumptions about the bible is lacking? I find it profoundly depressing and I’m not a Christian. 

Is AI a threat or not?

 Over recent weeks there have been dire warnings about the dangers of AI - from those in the vanguard of the industry. Is it - hype or is there something - to worry us all? According to The Daily Telegraph ‘we are  running out of time before AI kills us’. On the other hand, apparently Bill Gates has a plan: ‘to keep the world safe from AI oblivion’. For those not in the industry, it’s impossible to know - fact from fiction? Are we all - doomed or not? Quite candidly - I don’t know if I - should be fearful or not? 

Discrimination against LGBTQ+.

 A cruise ship The Scarlet Lady - has been refused entry to Turkey and now Egypt. The destination was for 10 days at sea from Athens to Venice, stopping off at various other destinations. The police in Turkey, have arrested a number of people for - undermining ‘traditional family values’. Needless to say this has caused great concern and anxiety in the LGBTQ+ community. This particular incident is an indication of how - combustible this political issue has become. It would appear - that we are witnessing a regression to more - reactionary and prejudicial attitudes and behaviour. This is a - right wing political ideology and we should be very worried by this turn of events. How much - lower will it go? 

Getting divorced.

 On Monday the respective leaders of - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, signed an Agreement of Understanding - regarding their respective countries going independent from Britain. Could this spell the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom? There is plenty of - water to pass under the bridge before then, but the government in London, must take the potential threat seriously. For too long there has been friction between - London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. It’s been wrongly assumed the status quo would last forever. This will be a wake up call to - politicians in Westminster. So we may see in the next few years - the various political parties in the divorce courts. All divorces are unhappy affairs - and this will be no different.