Tuesday, 6 January 2015
The Newsnight prediction for the election.
Newsnight have teamed up with the University of East Anglia and run the numbers through the computer. They have predicted the following result: Labour 286, Conservatives 280, Lib/Dems 26, SNP 33, DUP 8, Ukip 3, SDLP 3, Plaid 2, Greens 1 and other 8. So we can all rest in our beds at night and not wrestle with the ups and downs of the various polls. Having lived through a number of elections despite this prediction, this is the most uncertain election of all. Nevertheless if the predictions turn out to be true we are looking at another coalition or alternatively a minority government propped up on a issues by issue basis. Its going to be trench warfare and the Somme all over again. How many will get killed off by the demands of three line whips, or the ware and tear of it all? I hope Miliband does win, but his room to manoeurve will be very limited. He will have to use all his guile and political skill to get things done in parliament with such a small majority.
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