Saturday, 30 August 2014

Meltdown in the Conservative part following the switch by Douglas Carswell to UKip.

Mathew Parris in The Times today forecasts that the 'schism' this defection will cause is potentially lethal. There has always been a strong Euro-sceptic faction in the party but over time this has grown in recent years mainly due to the inexorable rise of UKip in British politics in the past few years and especially since the elections in May 2014 - and there 'starling gains' mainly at but not exclusively at the expense of the Tories. However this present malaise has been brewing under the surface for some years and has now erupted like a 'boil' on the face of the party - spewing out bile and puss. This internecine battle will end with many bodies scattered everywhere. Cameron has Parris claims thrown already 'too much red meat' to these unreconstructed politicians. When Margaret Thatcher was in power she had to address this audience and did so at her Bruges speech on 20 September 1988. She set out her latest thinking about the ever increasing demands of bureaucrats and politicians in Brussels. This was her Rubicon moment and there was no turning back for her or the party. In my opinion the Conservatives will continue to hemorrhage support in the county to UKip and also some politicians in parliament will follow the lead of Carswell. This will inevitable 'weaken their support' as the troops on the ground will become increasingly depressed seeing their battles being lost to the opposition. Labour will be the main winner in this battle of attrition. The Lib/Dems are also the big losers in this election battle as they are the most pro European party so the skids are under them. So its 'good night Vienna' for Nick Clegg - a busted flush.
Come May 2015 we shall see a Labour Party in power and Ed Miliband (his father was one of my teachers at the London School of Economics) as prime minister the first Jew since Disraeli in the late 19th century and Queen Victoria was on the throne. There will be much blood letting and civil war within the Conservative Party. Such is its importance that it will have enormous consequences for a divided party over such a major touchstone and symbolic foreign policy issue as our relationship with the European Union. It will have an impact over many years. This was indeed the case with the Corn Laws of 1846 and Sir Robert Peel as the then prime minister.

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