Religious revival.

 What’s going on across the country at the moment? Churches, cathedrals, chapels and various places of worship are having a revival. Why? We have long thought that religious observances were on its way out, but apparently not. On Tuesday 7 July in London there is a discussion by a panel of notable people to consider the issue. The title of the event is : Recovering the Sacred and many are likely to attend. Could the new generation of young people - be now so alienated because of social media and in particular smartphones - they want authentic experiences not virtual ones? Does the sacred offer that or is it just spiritual - pie in the shy? Perhaps it’s the sense of community and connection to others that underpins the experience? A shared coming together around a common goal and understanding. This is one reason so many people go to football matches and to the Glastonbury music festival each year, where 200,000 people come together. We live now so much of our time online - which isn’t authentic and real - so there is a real appetite and hunger for the non-synthetic. 

Defenestration.

 There are talks in the tea rooms at Westminster about how long the - prime minister has left? His disastrous handling of the welfare reforms are an omni-shambles - that have put his leadership and judgment on the line. At prime ministers questions on Wednesday the deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner - had all the characteristics of a leader in waiting. It’s now obvious that Keir Starmer isn’t the right person for the job, he doesn’t have the political antenna, smell or understanding of the ordinary backbencher. Both he and the chancellor Rachel Reeves are now very vulnerable and could be - kicked out in the not too distant future. It’s now a possibility of two - defenestrations at the same time. Who would have thought that a year ago next week after - such a resounding victory in July 2024 - the party would be in such disarray and tearing it self apart? Politics is a - rough old game and not for the faint hearted. But this could be the denouement for two big beasts of the government - the prime minister and chancellor. Their authority has been squandered and lost and will not return any time soon - so it could be good night Vienna for them both. 

Dominic Cummings.

 Perhaps the most thoughtful and interesting person today - who is thinking about the - malaise of government in Britain. Dominic Cummings had of course direct experience of working with Michael Gove at the Department of Education and Boris Johnson, when he was prime minister. He is excoriating in his assessment of the calibre of staff in these departments. He has a radical solution to the underlying systemic issues. Basically the old antediluvian civil service - is broken and beyond repair. The trajectory of travel is Darwinian, in other words unless they radically adjust they will - be obliterated by advances in science and technology and in particular AI. The Whitehall farce is coming to an inglorious end the denouement will be painful for those on deck at the time. The prime minister’s character is destiny - in other words Starmer isn’t the right person for the job and will eventually implode. The touchstone for good governance is - policy, people and management. Get these right and there might be hope. He is interviewed on The Daily T podcast available on YouTube. 

The ray of sunshine is that we have a long history of radical adaption to the historic forces like: technology, life sciences and AI. Other countries, with a history of violence insurrection and civil unrest and chaos - like France, Russia and Germany - will not be so lucky. We have been able to adapt relatively quickly to these sudden seismic political and social forces that have in - other countries brought civil war and untold destruction. Let’s hope he is right in this assessment. 

The big change however is the increased popularity of Nigel Farage and Reform across the country. They are way out in front of Labour and the Tories. Starmer and Badenoch are not doing very well and rapidly losing support of their own supporters. On Channel 4 tonight there is a programme about the possibility of Nigel Farage, becoming prime minister. That was considered only a few months ago as an absurd idea, but not any longer. It’s moved to the very top of the political agenda and Starmer and Badenoch are both very worried. 

Amol Rajan.

 The Today presenter and quizz master of University Challenge, Amol Rajan - some three years ago suffered the death of his much loved father from pneumonia. Since that day he has struggled with feeling depressed and tearful about his loss and grief. He decided therefore to go on a pilgrimage - to India and the home of his parents Hindu believe to the famous Kumbn Mela - where a staggering 500,000 pilgrims go to celebrate at the edge of the mighty river Ganges and bathe to - wash their sins away. It was a very moving programme as this non-believer and atheist - gets caught up in the energy and overwhelming sense of mission for the faithful. On balance I think he found some comfort in the experience. 

Fix Britain.

 There is a new think tank in town and it’s called Fix Britain and chaired by Munira Mirza @civic_future. Government in the country has failed over many years and the state isn’t functioning and working any longer. It’s more Heath Robinson - than effective stewardship of this once great nation. The trouble is - it’s being run by - amateurs, who have no experience of running a vast bureaucracy and organisation - spending many billions of pounds each year. Ministers are only supped up MP’s, promoted above their level of competence and skill. None if any have an understanding of how they should be run. So incompetence at the very top of government - including the prime minister. No wonder we are a poorly run country with this level of stewardship. Will it change? I very much doubt it as there are too many vested interests holding it back - systemic change is necessary before it’s too late. 

He who pays the piper calls the time.

 Never has this well known expression been more appropriate. Trump has said many times that NATO members must spend more on their collective defence in future. The US has for too long - done the heavy lifting on defence in Europe. So reluctantly they have agreed to up current spending to at least 5% of GDP in the next decade. Trump can rightly claim a victory in this regard - as all member countries have been hiding behind the - American largesse and generosity. It’s long been a serious political problem between the US and NATO countries, but hitherto nothing had changed. So in The Hague today in Holland history was at long last made. He who pays the piper calls the tune. 

A political tug of war between the government and backbenchers in parliament.

 Well it’s a political - tug of war, between the government and backbenchers in the House of Commons, before the vote on Tuesday. Kemi Badenoch, has said that she - is happy to lend the prime minister support on the issue. Needless to say -  this is  hasn’t been well received by the Labour Party in general and Starmer in particular. Will it be another face saving climb down by Starmer or will he decide to fight to the - last ditch? This is an iconic social policy for the government and they are determined to change the - Personal Independent Payments (PIP) as it’s costing many billions to the exchequer. There will eventually be a compromise as Realpolitik generally wins the day - so a face saving compromise will eventually be found.