Liberation Day.

 Today according to Trump, is Liberation Day - as he plans tariffs on international trade into America. There are capitals around the world, fearing that they could be in the firing line. Moreover this could throw the world economy into recession and provoke retaliatory measures against the US. No one wins in a trade war. Weak economies get weaker and strong ones suffer as well. So why do this? Trump thinks the US is being exploited and ripped off by other nations and in particular China. There is no - level playing field and he resents this. Rachel Reeves, will have her fingers crossed and - hope we can escape without being badly hit. Does he believe in the - special relationship or not? 

A third term for Trump.

 There is increasing anxiety in America, that Trump is planning to run for a third term. The general consensus until now is that a president can only serve on two occasions, but no more. He is going to challenge this assumption and has said so. In addition Steve Bannon, last week also announced that Trump would stand again in 2028. Some people have said that - he could cancel the midterm elections in  November 2026. These are challenging times in America and the Supreme Court might have to make a judgement about the legality of the issue. Will the court stand by the constitution or give way to a tyrant? 

Le Pen is furious.

 Well the - shit has hit the fan - in France. The front runner for the presidency in 2027 Marine Le Pen - has been disqualified. In a Paris court on Monday, she was found guilty of embezzling EU funds and consequently she is forbidden from the race. This of course - plays into the hands of the far right and conspiracy theorists. She can appeal the decision, but the process is long and Byzantine. Will the government come to regret this decision to take her to court? In the short term is difficult to know the consequences, but in the longer term - it could help her win eventually. It’s impossible now to predict the events for the next two years, but it’s unlikely - we have heard the last of Le Pen. 

Justin Welby.

 The recently resigned Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, gave an interview this morning on BBC One with Laura Kuenssberg, was a revelation. The reason for his leaving the church was his abject failure of leadership about the historical child abuse in the Church of England. John Smyth was the serial child abuser over many years. He died a few years ago, before any retribution could occur. Needless to say, many people are angry with Welby for his manifold mistakes and lack of leadership. He came across as a character who has lost all authority and has been humiliated by his failures - he is a deminished person and looked very depressed. . 

Another tragedy.

 When you thought life couldn’t get any worse a - titanic earthquake hits Myanmar and the death toll - is so far 1,600. It’s anticipated this figure will rise in next few hours and days. The country has been riven by a civil war for a number of years. Response from neighbouring countries like India, have sent blankets, tents, fresh water supplies and food. The city of Mandalay has been badly affected by the quake and many have lost their homes and have died. 

Children stolen by Russia.

 One of the cruelest actions by the Putin government is the forced kidnapping of young children from Ukraine to Russia. The parents are desperate and don’t know where their children are and have lost contact with them. Can you imagine the trauma for these children and also the families and grandparents? Why such a misanthropic policy? Putin claims that Ukraine is part of - mother Russia - so in his mind this is legitimate. What will become of the children and families? Another issue is about the psychological impact this will have on their development? So even if they do return to their parents - how will they have changed? What experiences will they have had to endure, without their parents and families? We know from the evacuation of children In WW2 - how this affected children separated from their parents. It’s not positive. 

Has the chancellor done enough?

 On Wednesday we had the Spring Statement by the chancellor Rachel Reeves. However the general response has been somewhat underwhelming by most pundits, including the influential Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS).They are of the opinion that she will probably need to come back in the autumn and increase taxes, in order to stay within her self imposed fiscal boundaries. Her headroom is relatively small at £9.9 billion and can been thrown off balance very easily. In addition the economy is hardly moving very fast and the need for increases in productivity are not looking too optimistic. Also the future is uncertain and Donald Trump could easily throw a - spanner in the works. So all in all things are not looking very promising. There is the elephant in the room - which is the - welfare state and limiting claimants. This could be her biggest political challenge.