Tuesday, 2 September 2014
Too close to call in the Scottish referendum on 18 September 2014.
As we get closer to the wire the latest You Gov opinion poll in The Times today puts the Better Together campaign just ahead at 53% and For Independence vote presently at 47%, but if you consider the psephologists margin of error of plus or minus of 2% it could be as close as - 49% to 51% or alternatively as wide as possibly 55% to 45% a very large gap of 10%.. If I was to bet I would say on balance caeteris paribus the Better Together will I think just steal the prize. All previous referendums in no matter which countries they are held stays with the 'status quo'. The reason being that the don't knows generally come down on that side thereby 'hedging their debts' as they tend to be on the conservative side politically and less willing to risk. Having said that if that is the case and its very close within a small margin of say 2% - then after the increased Devo-Max undertaking by all political parties in Westminster - I can foresee a groundswell of opinion in about 15 years time wanting another referendum until they get the right result - namely a truly fully independent Scotland - not tied down like Gulliver by the political pygmies in the Westminster village. If that was to happen then next in the Independence queue is Northern Ireland and last but not least Wales. So in 20 years time we could see the 'disassembling of the constituent parts' of the United Kingdom - not united any longer.
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